The Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson had a disappointing campaign last season despite being a part of one of the top offense units. Now, one NFL analyst has projected that the 2026 season could be a make-or-break season for the $50M tight end.

K.D. Drummond of Cowboys Wire believes that Ferguson failed to live up to the hype created around him, particularly after his first Pro Bowl season in 2023.

"The deal, four years for $50 million, had two years' worth of guaranteed money in it, giving him through the 2026 campaign to convince the coaching staff he's more than just quarterback Dak Prescott's best friend, but also an above-average tight end who pushes a talented offense forward," Drummond of Cowboys Wire wrote.

Drummond wrote in his Cowboys Wire report that the Cowboys limited his role by adding wide receiver George Pickens to play alongside WR CeeDee Lamb, to take the pressure off him.

Ferguson recorded 82 catches for 600 yards and eight touchdowns, a career-high in TDs, but an all-time low with 7.3 yards per reception in 2025.

Interestingly, this performance still earned him his second Pro Bowl nod.

The Cowboys added Luke Schoonmaker in 2023 as a depth addition behind Ferguson, but with no proven results, they ended up securing Ferguson through the 2026 season, according to Drummond of Cowboys Wire.

Ferguson is currently under a four-year, $50M contract, with about $28.4M guaranteed money and an average annual salary of $12.5M, keeping him through the 2029 season as per Spotrac.

Drummond believes that Ferguson must elevate his game and prove he is an elite asset rather than a replaceable starter in the 2026 season. Still, his latest projection doesn't place him very high.

Jake Ferguson ranked behind the NFL's top fantasy tight ends

Zachary Gephart of Sports Illustrated ranked Ferguson at No. 11 out of the top-12 TE rankings in his 2026 fantasy football list, as Ferguson proved to be less of a difference maker in the offense unit.

"Jake Ferguson is a great tight end who suffers from the star power of his own offense," Zachary Gephart of Sports Illustrated wrote in his article. "He will get his fair share of targets, but ultimately is set to play third fiddle to CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Consider Ferguson as a premium TE2 option rather than a notable starter."

The team has Brevyn Spann-Ford and Michael Trigg as backup TEs behind Ferguson. Spann-Ford proved to be a blocking specialist, while Trigg was added as a high-impact passing-game piece, providing more strength to the depth.

With the Cowboys adding valuable depth at tight end, Ferguson is at risk of being replaced if he fails to produce at a level expected of his new contract.

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Written by

Archana Ramakrishnan

Edited by

Aadesh Dhote